ASA statement on p-values
The ASA issued this statement in 2016 to address widespread misuse of statistical significance and p-values. The local PDF is the association’s official release.
The statement defines a p-value in relation to a specified statistical model. It says a p-value does not measure the probability that the studied hypothesis is true, the probability that chance alone produced the data, the size or importance of an effect, or the strength of evidence by itself. It also rejects basing scientific or policy conclusions solely on whether a value crosses a particular threshold and emphasizes full reporting and transparency.
The statement supports the comparison in Probabilistic interpretations of beyond reasonable doubt. It shows that even a mathematically defined threshold such as p < 0.05 cannot be translated into “95 percent certain.”