Video: The most avoided number in America Uploader: Elephants in Rooms - Ken LaCorte Upload date: 2026-08-03 URL: https://youtu.be/SuNH2nBokP0 Duration: 22 minutes Transcript: auto-generated captions retrieved via youtube transcript tool on 2026-08-04. Format: [MM:SS] text. [00:00] What's going on with the black murder [00:02] rate? In the United States, it's not [00:04] just marginally higher than the rest of [00:06] the country. It's seven times higher [00:08] than whites and well above every other [00:11] ethnic group that they track. [00:13] More black men between the ages of 15 [00:15] and 34 die by homicide than any other [00:18] cause, and it's not even close. Heck, [00:21] over twice as many are murdered than die [00:23] in car accidents. I'm Ken LaCourt and [00:26] that's today's elephant in the room. [00:28] So, there are lots of theories in all of [00:29] this and I'll do my best to give it to [00:31] you as straight as I can. Here's where [00:33] we're going. [00:34] We'll start with an ugly body count, [00:36] looking at the numbers. [music] [00:38] But, it wasn't always that way and we'll [00:40] see that in the rise and fall of murder. [00:43] Then, we'll start with the weaker [00:45] explanations before we get to what holds [00:48] up, the reasons that seem to make more [00:50] sense. Okay, so black Americans make up [00:53] only about 13% of the US population, but [00:56] they account for over half of all [00:58] murderers and half of all murder [01:00] victims. It's an ugly body count, no [01:02] matter how you look at it. By raw [01:04] numbers, we're talking about 10,000 [01:06] victims per year. In 2023, we saw a rate [01:09] of 3.2 deaths per 100,000 people for [01:13] white Americans [01:14] compared to 21 for black Americans. [01:17] And that gap has run about that wide for [01:19] at least 50 years. And it's not just a [01:21] black-white story. Latinos are roughly [01:24] five to six per 100,000 and Asian [01:26] Americans below two. Now, a small part [01:30] of that gap is demographics. Young [01:32] people are more violent and black [01:33] Americans are, on average, about six and [01:36] a half years younger than others. Still, [01:38] a young man in some Chicago zip codes [01:40] was three times more likely to be shot [01:42] to death than a US soldier deployed [01:45] during the Iraq or Afghanistan war. [01:47] Look, if I were black, this whole topic [01:49] might drive me a bit crazy because [01:51] there's a lot of people out there to use [01:52] it as a way to beat up on a whole [01:53] community. [01:55] So, first let's take a look at another [01:56] set of numbers, because they show that [01:58] number of black murderers and victims is [02:01] roughly two people out of every 10,000 [02:03] per year. [02:04] So, we're talking about a tiny fraction [02:06] of one group of people committing the [02:08] worst crime there is. And that violence [02:11] is highly concentrated. FBI county-level [02:13] data shows that about 2% of US counties [02:16] account for just over half of all [02:19] murders. Well, most counties report no [02:21] murders in a typical year. [02:23] And within those high murder counties [02:25] themselves, the killings cluster in [02:27] small sets of streets and blocks. [02:29] So, when you hear these numbers, don't [02:31] picture 45 million people. Picture a [02:33] smaller group of men within small [02:36] neighborhoods doing the majority of it. [02:38] Everyone else on those blocks, they're [02:40] not committing the violence, they're [02:41] living inside of it. So, to get a better [02:43] understanding of the high black murder [02:45] rate, before looking at the difference [02:46] between the races, let's take a look at [02:49] the rise and fall of murder. Because [02:51] those numbers for all races can vary [02:53] dramatically in short order. Murder in [02:56] America can double in a decade, then get [02:58] cut in half the next. Underneath that [03:00] movement, though, it's a slower story [03:02] that explains the racial gap, and I'll [03:04] focus on that in the next two sections. [03:06] So, first of all, you think it might be [03:08] easy to count murders, since I mean, [03:10] there's a body. But, that wasn't always [03:12] the case. Before 1937, national homicide [03:15] figures were pretty unreliable. The [03:17] federal death registration system was [03:19] new, and the cause of death reporting [03:21] wasn't standardized. So, as we look at a [03:23] chart from 1937 to now, the biggest [03:26] standout is the rise that started in the [03:28] mid-1960s, where the murder rate climbed [03:31] and gave us the deadliest 30-year [03:32] stretch of violence in modern American [03:34] history. The national rate hit 10 [03:36] murders per 100,000 people, but in major [03:39] cities, it was triple that, with over 30 [03:42] per 100,000 in New York, Chicago, Los [03:45] Angeles. By comparison, New York City's [03:47] murder rate last year was only 3.7. [03:51] That's only an eighth of its high. Now, [03:53] it's hard to exaggerate how unsafe the [03:55] big cities looked and felt in those [03:56] days. If you rode the New York subway in [03:58] the mid-1980s, the graffiti, the broken [04:00] windows, there was certainly a sense [04:02] that no one was really in charge [04:04] anymore. [04:05] The Bronx was full of open-air drug [04:07] markets running in broad daylight, and [04:09] kids played in in lots full of rubble. [04:11] And in some places, American cities [04:13] looked more like bombed-out blocks in [04:15] 1980s Beirut. That was ordinary life in [04:18] a lot of black neighborhoods for the [04:19] better part of two decades. Now, the [04:21] black-white racial breakdowns in the [04:23] data didn't really get reliable until [04:25] the 1970s, and to be honest, there's [04:27] still some squishiness in those numbers. [04:30] For instance, there's not even a uniform [04:31] way of defining a murder victim's race [04:34] in a country that's increasingly [04:35] becoming more multiracial. [04:37] Still, a few things are pretty clear. [04:40] First, the murder rate in the '70s grew [04:42] nationwide, but it grew more in the [04:44] black community by a wide margin. Black [04:47] and white murder rates usually move up [04:49] and down together, but for blacks, every [04:51] swing lands harder, with sharper spikes [04:54] and drops. All right, before I get into [04:56] the whys here, I need to start with [04:58] bigger caveats than I usually give. [05:00] And the first is that there's no single [05:02] obvious answer that people agree on, [05:04] especially the experts. Now, that's [05:06] usually the most difficult parts of my [05:08] videos. I mean, if there was one [05:09] straightforward answer to a question, [05:11] there probably wouldn't be much of a [05:12] debate or a mystery, and it wouldn't be [05:14] worthy of a video. Instead, all the [05:16] time, we we see overlapping, intermixed [05:19] reasons that change by person and over [05:21] time. [05:22] So, I try to give insight, but this just [05:24] isn't 2 + 2 = 4 stuff. Also, specific to [05:28] this, every single theory here is [05:30] disputed and has been the subject of [05:32] articles, books, conferences, even the [05:34] ideas I just mentioned in passing. [05:37] And for each one of those, you'd be able [05:38] to find a professor with a fancy degree [05:40] who says, "I'm dead wrong." [05:42] That's just the playing field here. [05:44] So, with that said, here's my best take [05:46] on all this. [05:47] Let's start again with the 1960s. [05:49] The post-World War baby boomers were [05:51] coming of age, so there were more people [05:53] in that age group more likely to cause [05:55] problems. There was also a weakening [05:57] trust in institutions and more social [05:59] unrest. But a few other factors really [06:01] seem to move the needle. The first was [06:03] drug use. [06:05] It exploded starting in the '60s. [06:07] Heroin and cocaine took over in the '70s [06:09] and '80s and hit the cities the hardest. [06:11] Then came crack in the mid-1980s and [06:14] things got much worse, especially in [06:16] poor black neighborhoods. [06:18] It was cheap, fast, and hooked people [06:20] easily. [06:21] The users often robbed to fund their [06:22] habit and the dealers shot each other [06:24] over sales turf. You can see it in the [06:26] murder rates directly. Between 1984 and [06:29] '94, homicide rates of black males aged [06:32] 14 to 24 doubled. [06:35] But the rate among black men over the [06:36] age of 25, that stayed roughly the same. [06:39] The 1960s also saw a real shift towards [06:42] leniency and away from jail time. [06:44] Sentences got lighter, paroles got [06:46] earlier, and the rights of the accused [06:48] increased. All as the murder conviction [06:50] rates dropped. Now, I have both personal [06:53] knowledge and certainly my own biases [06:55] here because I lived through this era [06:56] and saw it first hand too closely. [06:59] In 1976, my sister and her boyfriend [07:02] were hiking in the foothills near Los [07:03] Angeles when a random stranger murdered [07:06] them both. [07:07] I made a difficult video about this [07:09] where I detailed how their killer was [07:11] caught and sentenced to death. [07:13] But with the changes in the national and [07:14] state laws, he was eligible for parole [07:17] in just five and a half years. [07:19] In that era, there were hundreds, [07:21] probably thousands of stories similar to [07:23] that. [07:24] So, there's a reason why movies about a [07:26] vigilante family man or a vigilante San [07:29] Francisco cop became popular in those [07:31] days. [07:32] We even saw real-life vigilantes like [07:34] Bernie Goetz viewed as a hero by many. [07:36] Politicians, [07:37] they eventually responded. [07:39] And it wasn't just white conservatives [07:41] demanding crackdowns either. Black [07:43] mayors, pastors, and parents in those [07:45] neighborhoods they pushed hard for [07:46] tougher sentencing because they were the [07:48] ones burying their kids. The experiment [07:50] in leniency came to an end. Mandatory [07:53] minimum drug sentences arrived in 1986. [07:56] Washington state passed the first three [07:58] strikes law in 1993 and California [08:01] followed a year later. [08:03] That year Congress and President Clinton [08:05] the past a sweeping federal crime bill [08:07] funding a 100,000 new police officers [08:09] and expanding the list of crimes [08:11] eligible for the death penalty. [08:12] And as always the pendulum swung. The [08:15] murder rates dropped sharply through [08:16] much of the 1990s and continued downward [08:19] with only a couple minor spikes until a [08:21] handful of years ago. The next upswing [08:23] was quicker and more dramatic and it [08:25] started right after George Floyd's death [08:27] in 2020. [08:28] Some cities cut police budgets. Police [08:31] pulled back on their own. A new breed of [08:33] district attorneys took office, the kind [08:35] who'd never be called tough on crime. [08:37] Guaranteed bail increased in some [08:39] places. Others backed off tools like [08:41] gunshot detection sensors or video. [08:43] Crime rose fast and so did the backlash. [08:46] Defund the police died quickly. In just [08:48] a year the number of people who wanted [08:50] more not less police spending in their [08:52] area grew dramatically especially among [08:54] black Americans. Several of the new DAs [08:56] were recalled. Voters in California [08:59] undid some of the laws they called [09:00] reforms just a few years earlier. It was [09:03] the same movie played twice 60 years [09:05] apart. Loosen consequences, watch [09:08] violence crime, tighten it back up. But [09:10] notice what it doesn't do. It doesn't [09:12] explain why the racial gap holds steady [09:14] through both versions of that cycle. [09:17] Whatever's driving that, it isn't the [09:18] way that the police pendulum happens to [09:20] be swinging this decade. But before we [09:22] get to it, a quick word from today's [09:24] sponsor Odoo. Running a business, it [09:26] sounds like it should get easier the [09:28] longer you do it. But for me, I find it [09:30] gets more complicated. 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Desperation breeds crime. [10:58] As with all theories, we have to look at [10:59] correlation versus causation. [11:02] For instance, you see ice cream sales [11:04] and drowning both spike in summer. [11:07] But that's not a causal relationship. [11:09] They're both caused by hotter weather. [11:12] The poverty correlation falls into the [11:13] same camp. Beverly Hills is 16 miles [11:16] away from Compton. One's rich and safe, [11:18] the other is poor and dangerous. So, [11:20] poverty and murder do correlate, but [11:22] they do it weakly and inconsistently. [11:24] Raw income data shows poorer people [11:26] commit more murder, but that [11:28] relationship falls apart under some real [11:29] scrutiny, especially when you look at [11:31] county level data. [11:33] And and we also see it play out in [11:34] heavier poverty areas like Appalachia. [11:37] And excluding race, we see this play out [11:39] in counties where the county murder [11:41] rates don't move in lockstep with their [11:43] poverty levels. Asian-Americans also hit [11:45] hard against the whole poverty equals [11:47] crime concepts. I did a whole video on [11:50] how infrequently Asian-Americans commit [11:52] crimes even when they're poor. The [11:55] numbers are astounding. [11:57] Something else is going on and poverty [11:58] isn't the answer people think it is in [12:01] either direction. Now, let's talk guns. [12:03] They certainly make it easier to kill [12:05] someone and to many they seem like an [12:07] easy way to reduce violence. [12:09] And also there's a lot of misrepresented [12:11] or cherry-picked data in that entire [12:12] debate. But certainly the murder wave [12:14] that began in the 70s didn't coincide [12:16] with easier gun access. It was the [12:18] opposite. For most of American history, [12:21] getting a gun was trivially easy and [12:23] ownership was higher than it is now. And [12:25] racially, the correlation is backwards. [12:28] Black Americans own guns at one of the [12:30] lowest rates of any major ethnic groups, [12:32] yet they have the highest murder rate. [12:34] White Americans own the most guns. Pew [12:37] Research estimates that almost half of [12:38] white households own guns compared to [12:41] about a fifth of black Americans. Then [12:43] there's genetics, since somebody always [12:45] brings it up. But through all my videos [12:47] here, I've seen very little evidence to [12:49] show that genetics play more than [12:51] sometimes almost trivial role in complex [12:54] human behavior. [12:55] We see it specifically in the case of [12:57] violence. By the numbers, the American [12:59] black homicide rate runs roughly double [13:02] the average rate across sub-Saharan [13:03] Africa, the opposite of what a shared [13:05] genetic trait would predict. [13:07] Mexico's homicide rate runs several [13:09] times higher than the rate for Latinos [13:11] in the United States. [13:13] Again, the opposite of what you'd expect [13:15] if crime were following people across a [13:17] border. And new African immigrants in [13:19] America, I couldn't find murder specific [13:21] numbers, but their overall crime rates [13:24] are substantially lower than US-born [13:26] black Americans. That leaves racism. [13:29] It's the last element in the section, [13:30] but also shows up in the next one [13:32] because it means different things. [13:35] I think it's important to separate into [13:36] contemporary racism, I don't like you [13:38] because of your skin color, and the [13:40] historical racism that shaped culture [13:42] and societies over centuries. It's hard [13:45] to make the case that contemporary [13:46] racism drives the murder rate. If you [13:48] lean hard on the poverty equals violence [13:50] argument, you you can maybe stretch it [13:52] to get it there since poverty in black [13:54] communities has its own history tangled [13:56] up with racism. But if racism itself [13:58] were the direct cause, you'd expect to [14:00] see it show up in the form of [14:01] interracial killing, white offenders [14:03] targeting black victims, or vice versa. [14:06] And that's usually not what happens. [14:08] About 3/4 of murder victims are killed [14:10] by someone of their own race. In fact, [14:12] most victims know their own murderers [14:14] and are often related to them. Killings [14:16] are spurred by reasons like drugs, [14:18] disrespect, money, or girlfriends. [14:20] Racism usually isn't in that room. [14:23] The surge in murder in the 1960s and [14:24] 70s, they came along right at the same [14:26] time that American civil rights were [14:28] surging as well with overt racism in [14:31] retreat. Segregation was dismantled, [14:33] voting rights passed, black incomes and [14:35] black college enrollment climbed, all [14:37] while the black homicide rate doubled. [14:39] Too many conservatives though hear these [14:41] points and they they scratch racism off [14:43] the list entirely. But again, we'll get [14:45] into it in a second. Hey, I researched [14:47] this carefully but there's a lot of [14:48] statistics. If I made a mistake, send me [14:51] straight to jail. All right, don't do [14:52] that but let me know in the comments and [14:54] I'll address it below. [14:55] And I also have my script, notes, and [14:57] sourcing there as well. All right. Now [14:59] let's take a look at what holds up [15:01] better as theories because it's a [15:03] combination of family, drugs again, and [15:05] sometimes even getting away with murder. [15:08] Family first. And it started with a guy [15:11] that nobody wanted to listen to. In [15:12] March 1965, I was a month old, a Labor [15:16] Department official named Daniel Patrick [15:18] Moynihan wrote a report on black [15:20] families. It noted that the non-white [15:22] out of wedlock birth rate had climbed [15:24] from 16.8% [15:26] in 1940 to 23.6% [15:29] by 1963. [15:31] Moynihan was a New Deal Democrat from [15:32] New York City, and his report landed [15:35] like a lead balloon. [15:36] Some black leaders called it one of the [15:37] most dangerous things written about [15:39] black America in a generation. It was so [15:41] radioactive that serious academic work [15:44] on black family structure mostly stalled [15:46] for a generation. The chilling effect is [15:48] worth thinking about because 20 years [15:50] later a sociologist ran the numbers [15:53] anyway. [15:54] Robert Sampson studied crime in over 150 [15:56] American cities and found that family [15:59] disruption, kids growing up without a [16:01] father in the house, predicted the [16:03] murder and robbery rate on its own [16:05] independent of income, employment, or [16:07] how much welfare a state paid out. And [16:09] it worked exactly the same way in white [16:11] communities as it did in black ones. His [16:13] conclusion, and a number of other [16:14] correlational studies back this up, [16:16] shows that the primary drive of black [16:18] crime rates was fathers or or the [16:21] absence of them. Moynihan eventually [16:23] became a long-standing US Senator and a [16:25] lot of what he warned about came true. [16:27] And the fatherless numbers continued to [16:29] rise. [16:30] Part of the reason is baked into a [16:32] policy from that same era. [16:34] Aid to families with dependent children. [16:36] AFDC was the main cash welfare program [16:39] of Johnson's Great Society, and its [16:41] rules often meant a mother lost her [16:43] check and her Medicaid the moment she [16:45] married her child's father. [16:47] What came to be known as the marriage [16:49] penalty it wasn't aimed at black [16:50] families. It hit poor families of every [16:52] race. Single motherhood became the path [16:55] to more benefits and marriage became the [16:57] way to lose them. [16:58] Poor Americans across the board [17:00] responded to that incentive and it [17:02] landed on the black communities first [17:04] and hardest. Today, 69% of black [17:07] children in America are born out of [17:09] wedlock. [17:10] The white rate is 26%. [17:12] Substantially lower, but higher than the [17:15] the rate when Moynihan was ringing the [17:16] alarm. By comparison, Hispanic rates are [17:19] somewhere in between the two, and the [17:21] Asian rate is the lowest at 11.5%. [17:24] Now, welfare rules weren't the only [17:26] thing working against marriage. [17:28] Societal rules and the economy were, [17:29] too. The Great Black Migration in the [17:31] early 1900s had seen 6 million blacks [17:34] move from the countryside to the cities [17:36] for industrial jobs. And those were hit [17:39] particularly hard. Between 1967 and [17:42] 1987, New York City lost roughly a half [17:45] million manufacturing jobs. Chicago, [17:47] more than 300,000. Philadelphia, [17:50] 160,000. [17:51] That was over half of these cities' [17:53] manufacturing bases. The jobs that once [17:55] let a man without a college degree [17:57] support a family, in the neighborhoods [17:59] where those men lived, they vanished in [18:01] a single generation. The result was [18:03] self-evident. When the men who could [18:05] support a family disappear from the job [18:06] market, marriage disappears with them. [18:09] Now, I've already covered how drugs [18:10] drove the overall crime wave, but I just [18:12] want to reiterate how much it hit black [18:15] neighborhoods specifically. Because the [18:17] business of street drugs, it runs on [18:19] violence. [18:20] And an illegal business runs on violence [18:22] in a way that a legal one doesn't. I [18:24] mean, there's no court that you can sue [18:26] when your corner boy shorts you on a [18:27] product, or no police report you can [18:29] file when someone muscles in on your [18:31] block. So, business issues are settled [18:33] with violence. We saw the same up and [18:35] down during prohibition. I'd also like [18:37] to take a moment again and talk about [18:39] the clearance rates of murders. Because, [18:41] as I mentioned before, they've been [18:42] dropping. Now, I made an entire video on [18:45] this once, and the numbers in it, [18:47] they're troublesome. In 1962, American [18:50] police cleared 93% of homicides. Today, [18:54] it's closer to half. If you run the [18:56] numbers all the way through, [18:57] between arrests, convictions, and plea [18:59] deals, around 13,000 killers a year walk [19:03] away with no sentence at all in America. [19:05] And that's with tools that police in [19:07] 1962 couldn't have imagined, like DNA, [19:10] security cameras, and cell phone [19:11] location data. Much of that has to do [19:14] with an increased level of evidence [19:15] needed to convict someone. [19:17] And on one hand, that's great because it [19:19] means fewer innocent people going to [19:20] jail. [19:22] But there's a cost to it in more [19:23] killings. And that hits the black [19:25] community harder. Homicides with black [19:27] victims, they clear at a lower rate than [19:29] homicides with white victims, and they [19:31] have for decades. [19:33] Sometimes that's financial. Sometimes [19:35] that's because guns make it easier to [19:36] kill somebody from a distance and more [19:38] likely to get away with it. And guns are [19:40] disproportionately used in black [19:42] killings. [19:43] And for many of the gang-related [19:44] murders, people are just often unwilling [19:47] to talk to the cops. So when we look at [19:49] all of these issues all together, [19:50] we're not looking at disparate issues. [19:53] We're looking at a larger narrative [19:54] that's the definition of culture. [19:57] I looked at the murder statistics for my [19:58] city, and it was zero over a decade. [20:02] Heck, I've never even seen a fist fight [20:03] in my city. Now, we're older and [20:05] mellower here, but it's a visible [20:07] difference that I see when I go into [20:09] other places. It reminds me of an [20:10] anecdote that J.D. Vance wrote about in [20:12] Hillbilly Elegy, which was an [20:14] eye-opening look at the dysfunction in [20:16] Appalachian culture. And it was also [20:18] interesting because it was distinct from [20:20] race and a slavery history. [20:23] He talked about how defending your honor [20:24] was so important that a young kid would [20:27] certainly be expected to beat up a [20:28] neighbor who insulted him or his family. [20:31] And that instilled value stayed with him [20:33] for years, even when he was a lawyer in [20:35] Washington, D.C. I mean, enough so that [20:37] a traffic incident would rile him up [20:39] enough to almost assault somebody. It [20:41] was interesting to see that an honor [20:43] code that at a young part of your life [20:45] would be celebrated would send you to [20:47] jail at another part of your life. [20:50] And and we certainly see that in the [20:51] black culture. Sociologists call it [20:53] street code or a subculture of violence, [20:55] and others have earthier names for it. [20:59] But all of these cultural elements [21:00] didn't pop up out of nowhere. And that [21:02] brings me back to the part of the racism [21:04] question I didn't complete earlier. [21:06] Historical racism. [21:08] It's something that I think [21:09] conservatives often don't pay enough [21:10] attention to. It started as bad as you [21:12] can get. You're black, you're in chains. [21:15] And while it's easy for some to dismiss [21:17] that as being hundreds of years ago, [21:19] cultures change slowly. Heck, legal [21:21] segregation for housing and public [21:23] services and laws banning interracial [21:25] marriage, they didn't end until the late [21:27] 1960s. That was in my lifetime. It can [21:31] take generations for that kind of [21:32] history to work its way out of a [21:34] culture. [21:35] Distrust of police. Being abused by a [21:37] legal system. Being excluded from jobs [21:40] in the financial system. I mean, you [21:41] don't pass a law and watch beliefs [21:43] change overnight. That's not an excuse. [21:46] Nothing excuses a murder. [21:48] But if you're looking for where things [21:49] like street code comes from, you can't [21:51] leave this part out. All right. I hope I [21:53] didn't give the impression that I was [21:54] beating up on one group too much. So, [21:56] let me flip to something positive. [21:58] Why do blacks seem to be so much better [22:01] at athletics? [22:02] I mean, did you know that the last time [22:04] a white guy even qualified for the [22:06] Olympics 100-meter dash was 46 years [22:09] ago? [22:10] That's quite a streak. [22:12] So, why? [22:14] I did my best to answer that in this [22:15] video. And if the link doesn't appear [22:17] there, it's down in the description. [22:19] Hey, thank you for your time. I hope I [22:21] did a good job here and that you came [22:22] away with some more insight into all of [22:24] us. [22:25] Until next time.